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Post by painsofbeing on Sept 25, 2014 13:42:18 GMT -5
I was hoping for a more reasonable card count for Alomar, and I'd be curious to see what this does to the TBT market as a whole. I don't really see the point in starting a series w/ 3,500 and 2,500 count cards and then squeezing it down immensely in the last few weeks.
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Post by Janzaruk on Sept 25, 2014 14:05:25 GMT -5
Yeah, seems odd to me as well, but not unexpected. I'm assuming they want to keep that final reward card count pretty low. This will help
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Post by doogum on Sept 25, 2014 14:20:04 GMT -5
Was saving my coins for this, but yikes!! Spent over 160k in Triples and 100k in Hi-fives before I pulled this. The only other inserts I got were old FC's (Cabrera, Harang and the the guy from the Mets). Not real thrilled that I couldn't even pull a POTW or SNB along the way. Anyway, the odds should be better for someone else now ?
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Post by ronnyberry on Sept 25, 2014 14:22:06 GMT -5
If you start the counts high, a lot of people have it and as they get closer to the set, they are more likely to overspend to finish the set to get the reward, so you make the the last ones harder to pull with lower odds to create a sense of urgency in buying as many packs as you can before you realize how much you spent to finish the set. It's very close to how they do all of their weekly sets (and the Fan's Choice cards).
They also like to add the high counts to Black packs but keep the a few of the harder pulls out with the expectation that if you only need a few cards for the reward, you will fork out more money for the individual inserts pack to try and finish the set.
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Post by ctsoxfan on Sept 25, 2014 14:36:23 GMT -5
I always wondered about pulling an insert like this from triples, or hi-fives. If the odds are 1:60 for each, you would think it would be better to just buy triples because they are cheaper. But last time I tried for a TBT this way (Carew) I pulled way more than 100 triples (I think the odds on that one were 1:70) and did not get one. I went back to hi-fives and pulled one in about 40 of those. So are the odds really the same? Any thoughts?
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Post by doogum on Sept 25, 2014 23:00:47 GMT -5
Actually, I'm kind of glad they did it this way, with the higher count cards early, as some of those series that had low #'s early are very hard to find (Aaron GM anybody??). Still, the Tbt odds lately have been as low as ever (Alomar, Stargell, even Molitor at 1000...), and could get worse.
My take on the odds...it seems to me that, although they may state 1:60, the odds for the first 300 or so may be 1:100, followed by a 1:50, followed by a special pack with higher odds, say 1:20. This would average out to 1:60 throughout the run, but harder to pull the first day while the initial rush/excitement of the new card is fresh. Just my theory, because I had a heck of a time pulling some of these on the first day (including Buckner), but found it easier on the 2nd day when I was after the newest GM.
Don't know about triples vs. Hi-fives, it doesn't seem to matter. With triples I can buy more packs, but it's ultimately the same amount of cards. It seems the odds are about the same for these, in my experience.
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