Testing Huddle's stated Odds. Part 1

[ronnyberry]

I have felt like I have been getting FAR below the stated odds given bu HUDDLE>  So I wanted to start documenting my findings and see if anyone actually pulls close to the stated odds on larger samples

Date
10/19/2014
Pack = Extra Point + Super Rare
Number of Packs = 500
Cards Available Based on time and card counts
Card                    Stated Odds      Expected Pulls           Actual Pulls     Difference    Percent Difference
Manning Milestones    1/100              5                           2                    -3                -60%
Murray Milestones      1/100              5                          2                     -3                -60%
Patterson GM             1/75               6.67                      6                     -.67             -10%
Luck EC                    1/25               20                         9                      -11              -55%
   Total                     7.333 %           36.67                   19                    -17.67          -48.16%

[oldgrady]

Interesting but not surprising. Pull rate for everything is light. Pulling that many packs, you'd expect some to be high, some to be low, but overall close to the published pull rates (assuming the published rates are correct). But I guess that's the pt, published rates may not be accurate.

[tke96]

Realize that also some may have sold out while you were pulling packs too. Happened to me chasing the Manning milestone.

I like that someone is tracking though....nice work.

[huffydmb]

I think there is some slight flaw in your logic. Odds may be posted at 1 in 100, but that has to be spread across ALL packs. I don't think the posted odds are JUST for the Extra Point + Super Rare pack. They have to spread the inserts amongst all of the "includes inserts" packs, so your pull rates are probably more consistent with what they are posting.

Not trying to poo-poo your study, just calling out that there might be some flaws in your logic - that's all.

Well done though! We need more of this kind of stuff.

[pasadenasharks]

I opened up 100 extra point packs before I got a Manning Milestone. No other insert in the 100 packs, and pulled the Manning on the last one.

[SCUncensored]

I think this also depends on how many people are opening at the same time. I stand by the fact that the odds are better when there are a mass of people all opening at once.

Example:

Opened 15 purple boost packs from the exclusive store and GOT NOTHING. Nada. No boosts.
Right after, opened 5 purple boost packs from the regular store and got 2. 

Now, it could be that there is something else at work, but there are FAAAAAR less people opening the exclusive store packs than the normal packs, so a bunch more packs have to cycle through the exclusive store before an insert hit than the regular store.

I think of it like a price is right showcase showdown wheel. The cards available all spin through and it lands on certain packs. If you are spinning the wheel by yourself, many more cards have to cycle through the random pull list before it comes back around to the seeded inserts by odds. If a bunch of people are all cycling the packs at the same time, more inserts will come through because more people are sucking up all the packs without inserts.

[tke96]

Unless of course they mess up the odds like for the Rizzo key on Bunt.....