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Post by jmg1mon on Aug 26, 2014 6:13:45 GMT -5
I have a hard time believing those odds to be accurate. I can't believe that at least 10K packs were not opened last week. The writing is on the wall. As more and more people become disenchanted with Bunt, the more desperate they will become.
The fact that there are still 300+ Cardinals cards out there should be a wake up call to Mike and the rest of the Topps team. If you want to give out an award only once, no one is going to buy the packs once it's given out. Especially not for the same price. Improve the odds of pulling the cards and ensure they are sold out prior to giving out the award. These cards are going to get sold out at <500 or they eventually will give them away in the Black pack (which is going to piss people off as well). Topps has done this to themselves due to greed and a lack of common sense.
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Post by schmidty20 on Aug 26, 2014 6:58:35 GMT -5
I have a hard time believing those odds to be accurate. I can't believe that at least 10K packs were not opened last week. The writing is on the wall. As more and more people become disenchanted with Bunt, the more desperate they will become. Quoting this because: The probability of opening a Super Bonus Pack and NOT finding a Golden Ticket is 9999 out of 10000. The chance of hitting that "9999" 10K times in a row is around 36.8%. So, if the Topps odds are actually accurate, then it's very reasonable that somebody would not have pulled it in 10K packs. Now lets say that 20000 packs have been pulled by the community. There would still be a 13.5% chance of no one pulling it. The community would have to pull slightly more than 23000 (23025 to be exact) packs to even have a 90% chance of one being pulled. Finally, when Topps says 1:10000, they really mean 10000:1, or 1 in 10000. If they say the former, that means it should take me one pack to pull 10000 Golden Tickets. |
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Post by schmidty20 on Aug 26, 2014 7:27:22 GMT -5
See below table. The column in blue is what's important. That tells you how many packs would need to be pulled to have an x% chance of pulling the Golden Ticket.
EDIT: Hope you can see the table.
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Post by agee1131 on Aug 26, 2014 8:58:13 GMT -5
so at least they refunded the ppl that bought the discounted super pack... but do we know if anyone has pulled the 2nd ticket yet? this is really not good for topps or for any of us. the sad thing is, they continue to burn our patience and good will but nothing seems to deter them. only 1 insert set came out today (the average is 2 and we were "blessed" with 3 last week). its not a great looking set, i wonder how many ppl are really chasing it. i guess we'll know if they start to discount it or give out the 1M bundle again. When did they announce the refund and why? I bought a few of these for 15K and got no refund. |
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Post by jmg1mon on Aug 26, 2014 9:22:47 GMT -5
It was only for packs bought at 10K on Saturday. I was refunded for all 11 packs I purchased.
Schmidty, I cannot see a table but I am on my phone.
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Post by coachnip13 on Aug 26, 2014 9:36:11 GMT -5
I have a hard time believing those odds to be accurate. I can't believe that at least 10K packs were not opened last week. The writing is on the wall. As more and more people become disenchanted with Bunt, the more desperate they will become. Quoting this because: The probability of opening a Super Bonus Pack and NOT finding a Golden Ticket is 9999 out of 10000. The chance of hitting that "9999" 10K times in a row is around 36.8%. So, if the Topps odds are actually accurate, then it's very reasonable that somebody would not have pulled it in 10K packs. Now lets say that 20000 packs have been pulled by the community. There would still be a 13.5% chance of no one pulling it. The community would have to pull slightly more than 23000 (23025 to be exact) packs to even have a 90% chance of one being pulled. Finally, when Topps says 1:10000, they really mean 10000:1, or 1 in 10000. If they say the former, that means it should take me one pack to pull 10000 Golden Tickets. Maybe I'm not following, but if Bunt says there is one Golden Ticket in 10,000 packs, then.......there is zero chance that 10,000 packs could be opened without someone pulling the Golden Ticket. If there is even one more pack opened, then the original odds were false . If there were TWO Golden Tickets, then it would be reasonable to open 10 or 15 thousand packs without pulling one of them. But not if there's only one. |
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Post by coachnip13 on Aug 26, 2014 10:16:08 GMT -5
Ah, I see your mistake. You're treating this as a math class problem which gives odds for an event that could happen many times or zero times with the stated odds of 1 in 10000 tries. So it could happen three times in the first 1000 attempts or zero times in the first 12,000 attempts. This is much simpler. There is one successful event, no more and no less. And Bunt says it will happen once out of 10,000 packs. So, after 10,000 packs are opened, the ticket must have been pulled. That's all there is too it.
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Post by schmidty20 on Aug 26, 2014 10:21:04 GMT -5
Quoting this because: The probability of opening a Super Bonus Pack and NOT finding a Golden Ticket is 9999 out of 10000. The chance of hitting that "9999" 10K times in a row is around 36.8%. So, if the Topps odds are actually accurate, then it's very reasonable that somebody would not have pulled it in 10K packs. Now lets say that 20000 packs have been pulled by the community. There would still be a 13.5% chance of no one pulling it. The community would have to pull slightly more than 23000 (23025 to be exact) packs to even have a 90% chance of one being pulled. Finally, when Topps says 1:10000, they really mean 10000:1, or 1 in 10000. If they say the former, that means it should take me one pack to pull 10000 Golden Tickets. Maybe I'm not following, but if Bunt says there is one Golden Ticket in 10,000 packs, then.......there is zero chance that 10,000 packs could be opened without someone pulling the Golden Ticket. If there is even one more pack opened, then the original odds were false . If there were TWO Golden Tickets, then it would be reasonable to open 10 or 15 thousand packs without pulling one of them. But not if there's only one. The August 13 article (probably the first Golden Ticket) states: "Your odds of pulling the ticket are 1:10,000". To me, that means you have a 1 in 10,000, or a .01% chance of pulling one in each pack you pull. That corrolates to a 9999 in 10,000 chance of NOT pulling one. To figure out the chances of NOT pulling one 10K, 20K, 23K times in a row, simply do 99.99^10K, or 99.99 to the ten-thousandth power. |
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Post by schmidty20 on Aug 26, 2014 10:21:53 GMT -5
Ah, I see your mistake. You're treating this as a math class problem which gives odds for an event that could happen many times or zero times with the stated odds of 1 in 10000 tries. So it could happen three times in the first 1000 attempts or zero times in the first 12,000 attempts. This is much simpler. There is one successful event, no more and no less. And Bunt says it will happen once out of 10,000 packs. So, after 10,000 packs are opened, the ticket must have been pulled. That's all there is too it. BUNT says your odds are 1:10,000. Not that there is 1 in 10,000 packs. I'm finding the percentage of failing so many times in a row. |
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Post by coachnip13 on Aug 26, 2014 10:23:26 GMT -5
See my second post.
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Post by schmidty20 on Aug 26, 2014 10:24:14 GMT -5
See mine.  |
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Post by guineapirates on Aug 26, 2014 10:24:45 GMT -5
Ah, I see your mistake. You're treating this as a math class problem which gives odds for an event that could happen many times or zero times with the stated odds of 1 in 10000 tries. So it could happen three times in the first 1000 attempts or zero times in the first 12,000 attempts. This is much simpler. There is one successful event, no more and no less. And Bunt says it will happen once out of 10,000 packs. So, after 10,000 packs are opened, the ticket must have been pulled. That's all there is too it. BUNT says your odds are 1:10,000. Not that there is 1 in 10,000 packs. What happens when you open a pack has no bearing on what happens when you open a second pack, a third pack ... a ten-thousandth pack. Each pack has a 1:10,000 chance of containing the Golden Ticket, independent of any other pack you have opened. |
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Post by schmidty20 on Aug 26, 2014 10:26:35 GMT -5
BUNT says your odds are 1:10,000. Not that there is 1 in 10,000 packs. What happens when you open a pack has no bearing on what happens when you open a second pack, a third pack ... a ten-thousandth pack. Each pack has a 1:10,000 chance of containing the Golden Ticket, independent of any other pack you have opened. I'm fully aware of that. I'm not saying that the chance of pulling the card goes up with each failure, I'm saying that there is a reasonable chance that those 1 in 10K odds were missed 10K times in a row. |
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Post by coachnip13 on Aug 26, 2014 10:27:16 GMT -5
Ah, I see your mistake. You're treating this as a math class problem which gives odds for an event that could happen many times or zero times with the stated odds of 1 in 10000 tries. So it could happen three times in the first 1000 attempts or zero times in the first 12,000 attempts. This is much simpler. There is one successful event, no more and no less. And Bunt says it will happen once out of 10,000 packs. So, after 10,000 packs are opened, the ticket must have been pulled. That's all there is too it. BUNT says your odds are 1:10,000. Not that there is 1 in 10,000 packs. That's your error. There is only one. It's not an event that COULD happen. There is one winner. No more, no less. Let me show you how you're mixing this up: If I do random multiplication problems, there is a one in ten chance that the answer will end with a four. I could do 100 straight problems without getting a four, or I could get a four 7 straight times. The odds are still 1 in 10. The number of successful events varies every time you try it. But when the state of Florida sells scratch off tickets, the odds for the grand prize might be 1 in 500,000. That means that they print 500,000 tickets and there is one winner. That's the situation we're dealing with here. Fixed odds with exactly one successful event. |
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Post by guineapirates on Aug 26, 2014 10:28:31 GMT -5
What happens when you open a pack has no bearing on what happens when you open a second pack, a third pack ... a ten-thousandth pack. Each pack has a 1:10,000 chance of containing the Golden Ticket, independent of any other pack you have opened. I'm fully aware of that. I'm not saying that the chance of pulling the card goes up with each failure, I'm saying that there is a reasonable chance that those 1 in 10K odds were missed 10K times in a row. I'm agreeing with you. |
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