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Post by guineapirates on Aug 26, 2014 10:42:23 GMT -5
As schmidty20 has explained, the odds of not pulling the Golden Ticket in 10,000 packs can calculated using the following formula: (probability of not pulling Golden Ticket)^(number of packs) = probability of not pulling Golden Ticket in number of packs (9999/10000)^10000 = 0.36786 = 36.79% chance of not pulling the Golden Ticket in 10,000 packs. Our fundamental disagreement isn't over the math, it's over how many packs there are. I could very well be wrong, and that they are using a random number generator. I was leaning toward the physical pack model. There is a finite number of packs with stated odds. So if you don't pull that 1/1 Puig with 1 in 500,000 odds in the first 499,999 packs, you can be sure that it's in the last pack. Digital Topps =/= Physical Topps. I agree that Topps needs to be more transparent as to how they calculate their odds but it seems pretty clear based on the experience of myriad users of the application that Topps is more likely than not using some form of random number generation to define their odds. |
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Post by coachnip13 on Aug 26, 2014 10:43:14 GMT -5
Then Topps is lying, which gets back to that other guy's original point. I'm saying that Topps randomly decided on 10000, and that was what they used. They could have just as well used 15000. If it's random, though, then the math doesn't apply. Because your calculations are specifically tied to the number 10,000. If they pulled a number out of the air, then you have zero idea how long it would take to pull one. |
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Post by schmidty20 on Aug 26, 2014 10:43:32 GMT -5
No, but it is more likely to show up in a GROUP of 500 spins as opposed to a GROUP of 50 spins. Which isn't what was said, but thanks!!!! Just like that Ticket is only 64% likely to show up in a GROUP of 10,000 packs, if it was put in the packs at 1 in 10,000 odds. |
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Post by coachnip13 on Aug 26, 2014 10:44:16 GMT -5
Schmidty and guinea are right. No need to argue about this anymore in my opinion. The facts have been stated already. They're saying two different things. One thinks they are using a 1 to 10,000 random number generator, the other thinks that 10,000 is a random, pointless number. |
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Post by schmidty20 on Aug 26, 2014 10:45:02 GMT -5
I'm saying that Topps randomly decided on 10000, and that was what they used. They could have just as well used 15000. If it's random, though, then the math doesn't apply. Because your calculations are specifically tied to the number 10,000. If they pulled a number out of the air, then you have zero idea how long it would take to pull one. But that randomly decided upon 1 in 10000 are, if Topps is being truthful, the actual odds that they used. If they randomly decided upon 15000, they would have put the card in with 1 in 15000 odds. |
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Post by guineapirates on Aug 26, 2014 10:46:41 GMT -5
I'm saying that Topps randomly decided on 10000, and that was what they used. They could have just as well used 15000. If it's random, though, then the math doesn't apply. Because your calculations are specifically tied to the number 10,000. If they pulled a number out of the air, then you have zero idea how long it would take to pull one. We can calculate the probability of one being pulled over time based on the number of packs purchased. As the group increases, it is more likely that the Golden Ticket gets pulled. Again, Topps needs to make it clear that the method used to calculate their odds is the odd of a particular number being generated using a random number generator, wherein the random number generator selects a number from 1 to (max odds - in this case 10,000) and the odds of selecting the winning number is 1/10,000. |
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Post by schmidty20 on Aug 26, 2014 10:46:39 GMT -5
Schmidty and guinea are right. No need to argue about this anymore in my opinion. The facts have been stated already. They're saying two different things. One thinks they are using a 1 to 10,000 random number generator, the other thinks that 10,000 is a random, pointless number. The fact that it's randomly decided upon is irrelevant. The odds were decided upon before the card was put into packs. If the odds were 1 in 15K, the card WOULD BE HARDER TO PULL. |
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Post by paulypavilion on Aug 26, 2014 10:49:55 GMT -5
BUNT says your odds are 1:10,000. Not that there is 1 in 10,000 packs. That's your error. There is only one. It's not an event that COULD happen. There is one winner. No more, no less. Let me show you how you're mixing this up: If I do random multiplication problems, there is a one in ten chance that the answer will end with a four. I could do 100 straight problems without getting a four, or I could get a four 7 straight times. The odds are still 1 in 10. The number of successful events varies every time you try it. But when the state of Florida sells scratch off tickets, the odds for the grand prize might be 1 in 500,000. That means that they print 500,000 tickets and there is one winner. That's the situation we're dealing with here. Fixed odds with exactly one successful event. Bunt did not say that there was a 1 card in 10,000 packs, they said for any given pack, there is a 1 in 10,000 chance that you pull the card. Schmidty's analysis is accurate and demonstrates how more than 10,000 packs could be opened without the card being pulled. Only if Topps had said there would be only 10,000 packs sold and there was one golden ticket would it be a guarantee that one gets pulled with in 10,000 packs. It is semantics and a little misleading, but it is not wrong. Now, if for the first 5,000 packs pulled, they forgot to setup their random generator to include the chance of pulling a golden ticket, then there would be a problem. I saw this at a conference once where they had an electronic "wheel" that was generating prizes. It kept spitting out only the cheap prizes, I hung around while they tried to fix and I saw that they had "forgotten" to actually put the big prizes in. |
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Post by guineapirates on Aug 26, 2014 10:50:08 GMT -5
They're saying two different things. One thinks they are using a 1 to 10,000 random number generator, the other thinks that 10,000 is a random, pointless number. The fact that it's randomly decided upon is irrelevant. The odds were decided upon before the card was put into packs. If the odds were 1 in 15K, the card WOULD BE HARDER TO PULL. Exactly. Once Topps decides that the odds are 1:10,000, they can program the random number generator to select a number from 1 to 10,000 where the winning number is some number Topps has come up with. If Topps decides that the odds are 1:15,000, then the random number generator is programmed to select a number from 1 to 15,000. Make sense? |
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Post by schmidty20 on Aug 26, 2014 10:54:07 GMT -5
I'm out of this thread.
(Well, for a little while.)
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Post by PezCrew on Aug 26, 2014 11:31:01 GMT -5
Either way we all look at it - the truth is that a ton of packs were purchased and no one pulled the ticket. Sucks!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Post by keithwilliams on Aug 26, 2014 12:33:36 GMT -5
BUNT says your odds are 1:10,000. Not that there is 1 in 10,000 packs. That's your error. There is only one. It's not an event that COULD happen. There is one winner. No more, no less. Let me show you how you're mixing this up: If I do random multiplication problems, there is a one in ten chance that the answer will end with a four. I could do 100 straight problems without getting a four, or I could get a four 7 straight times. The odds are still 1 in 10. The number of successful events varies every time you try it. But when the state of Florida sells scratch off tickets, the odds for the grand prize might be 1 in 500,000. That means that they print 500,000 tickets and there is one winner. That's the situation we're dealing with here. Fixed odds with exactly one successful event. I think you are misunderstanding the way these packs work, along with a fundamental difference between the Florida lottery, with physical printed tickets, and BUNT, with digital packs. For the lottery, the only way the odds make sense on a scratch-off is if they print a specific number of tickets with a particular number of winners out there. However, in BUNT it makes better sense to have the mathematical odds applied individually to every single pack opened, and then close the offer (i.e., pull the pack) when somebody "wins." This is why, with the first super bonus pack, the pack disappeared from the store in a matter of hours once the ticket was pulled. But the second time around, the pack stayed around much longer because nobody hit the jackpot ("error" notwithstanding). Of course, this is really a pointless debate because Topps hasn't told us which way they do things. But the idea of producing 10,000 packs and putting the card in one makes much less sense from a programming perspective. It would require them to assemble a database with 10000 different packs residing in it, then "pull" a random cell from that database each time someone buys a pack. Much more data intensive than generating 5 cards according to an algorithm each time a pack is purchased. |
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Post by keithwilliams on Aug 26, 2014 12:35:54 GMT -5
Wow, I replied without reading two pages worth of discussion. Sorry. Carry on.
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Post by paulypavilion on Aug 26, 2014 13:01:22 GMT -5
Wow, I replied without reading two pages worth of discussion. Sorry. Carry on. I did that before as well. |
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Post by ctsoxfan on Aug 26, 2014 13:18:14 GMT -5
The fact that it's randomly decided upon is irrelevant. The odds were decided upon before the card was put into packs. If the odds were 1 in 15K, the card WOULD BE HARDER TO PULL. Exactly. Once Topps decides that the odds are 1:10,000, they can program the random number generator to select a number from 1 to 10,000 where the winning number is some number Topps has come up with. If Topps decides that the odds are 1:15,000, then the random number generator is programmed to select a number from 1 to 15,000. Make sense? I think what GP says here should really make it clear to people how these pack odds work. They do not produce a set, finite number of packs - packs can be generated all day and night until the RNG hits a winner. Even then, how many times have we seen packs remain on sale even after the insert in question (signature pack) is sold out? I tried to get a Chapman GM on Saturday, odds were stated as 1:70 packs. When the Hi-Five packs went on sale, I opened a ton. After the first 70, no Chapman. After the second 70 (now 140 total packs) I still did not get a Chapman. I opened somewhere around 160 packs total and did not get one before I gave up. And I left that experience feeling a bit ripped off. I know how the odds work, but your brain tells you that - "well, I opened 60 packs, so I'm due to get one soon", and that is how you get roped in to buying more and more. |
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