Super Bonus Pack On Sale

[jamminj]

just for reference i only had to open 15 packs to get the golden ticket.

[samowamo]

SHOW OFF!

[TylerFeth]

Not to drag this on any longer, but I agree with Schmidty and GP's math.

Plus, it makes a ton more sense from a business standpoint to give each pack a 1:10,000 chance to contain your pass to the Topps Wonka Factory. If there were only 10k total packs, the most business savvy thing Topps could do, in that situation, would be to put a pack limit countdown on the Super Bonus Pack like they do with the Twitter pack. That pack would sell out in half an hour and the temptation to buy bundles and chase would be too much for most to resist. Knowing the Golden Ticket had to be pulled at some point in 10k packs, and seeing that there are only 4k packs left would cause a feeding frenzy of bundle buying and pack ripping.

Using the "each pack has a 1:10,000 chance of generating the 'right' number to get the Golden Ticket" formula, there's a much better chance that it will take >10,000 packs for the ticket to be pulled. Let's say Topps ran a game on the numbers and came up with an average of 16,000 packs for the ticket to be pulled. (The 16,000 is just an arbitrary number I chose for the sole reason that it's greater than 10k.) That 6000 additional packs would yield another 120,000,000 at 20k per pack. 120,000,000/500,000= 240 additional bundles of the 500k coin bundle. 240 bundles * $80 per bundle = $19,200. And that's the additional revenue for the cheapest bundle(unless 1M is in stock). Anybody buying lesser bundles just makes that number go higher.

If you wanna skip the math altogether and discuss why latter option is the more likely one used, just look at all the money chasing Topps has done so far this season and ask yourself "would they ever choose the option that would require less bundles to be purchased"?

[guineapirates]

Aug 26, 2014 14:04:20 GMT -5 TylerFeth said:

Not to drag this on any longer, but I agree with Schmidty and GP's math.

Plus, it makes a ton more sense from a business standpoint to give each pack a 1:10,000 chance to contain your pass to the Topps Wonka Factory. If there were only 10k total packs, the most business savvy thing Topps could do, in that situation, would be to put a pack limit countdown on the Super Bonus Pack like they do with the Twitter pack. That pack would sell out in half an hour and the temptation to buy bundles and chase would be too much for most to resist. Knowing the Golden Ticket had to be pulled at some point in 10k packs, and seeing that there are only 4k packs left would cause a feeding frenzy of bundle buying and pack ripping.

Using the "each pack has a 1:10,000 chance of generating the 'right' number to get the Golden Ticket" formula, there's a much better chance that it will take >10,000 packs for the ticket to be pulled. Let's say Topps ran a game on the numbers and came up with an average of 16,000 packs for the ticket to be pulled. (The 16,000 is just an arbitrary number I chose for the sole reason that it's greater than 10k.) That 6000 additional packs would yield another 120,000,000 at 20k per pack. 120,000,000/500,000= 240 additional bundles of the 500k coin bundle. 240 bundles * $80 per bundle = $19,200. And that's the additional revenue for the cheapest bundle(unless 1M is in stock). Anybody buying lesser bundles just makes that number go higher.

If you wanna skip the math altogether and discuss why latter option is the more likely one used, just look at all the money chasing Topps has done so far this season and ask yourself "would they ever choose the option that would require less bundles to be purchased"?

MATH!